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May 13, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

day3otlk

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 151200Z – 161200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY.

…SYNOPSIS…
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE MS VALLEY AS AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX ELONGATES ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY. AN ATTENDANT MERIDIONAL MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD BE CENTERED FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL GREAT LAKES ON THU AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE…A CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK NEWD FROM THE CNTRL OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST.

…LOWER GREAT LAKES TO S ATLANTIC COAST…
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING THU MORNING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN FAVORABLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A MERIDIONAL JET STREAK AND AMIDST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN THE ADJACENT WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE WEAK WITH LIKELY ONLY MODEST SURFACE HEATING GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION. BUT WITHIN A PLUME OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG WITH STRONG YET MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES…SOME RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE REALIZED. IF POCKETS OF GREATER SURFACE HEATING CAN BE RELIABLY IDENTIFIED…SLIGHT RISK AREAS MAY BE HIGHLIGHTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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