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May 13, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 131300Z – 141200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFIED…VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD. NRN PART OF THE CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO CNTRL ONT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TODAY…WHILE SRN MEMBER /NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS/ CONTINUES ESE INTO OK/TX. COLD FRONT MARKING THE ERN EDGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS…OH VLY…LWR MS VLY…AND SE TX LATER TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY…AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO ITS E AND S…WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS.

…LWR MI/IND/OH/KY THIS AFTN/EVE…
SFC HEATING WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN LWR MI AND THE MID-OH VLY TODAY. ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT…WEAK LAPSE RATES…AND WEAKENING MID-UPR LVL FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW. NEVERTHELESS…A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTN AND EVE SWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS GIVEN RESIDUAL BELT OF 35-40 KT SSWLY 700 MB FLOW AND FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 1.50 INCHES/.

…DEEP AS TX TODAY…
RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ WILL PERSIST OVER DEEP S TX THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY…UNTIL PRE-FRONTAL COMPLEX OF CONVECTIVE BANDS NOW OVER REGION FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN ZONE OF RELATIVELY SLACK…DIFLUENT MID AND UPR-LVL FLOW ON SE FRINGE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WLY COMPONENTS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN RCKYS APPROACHES LATER TODAY/TNGT…HELPING ACCELERATE THE CONVECTION OFF THE S TX COAST. UNTIL THEN…BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS MAY YIELD ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.

…LA GULF CST LATE IN PERIOD…
A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD EVOLVE LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE LA GULF CST AS WINDS/ASCENT INCREASE ALONG FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH. SHEAR/BUOYANCY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT AT THIS TIME.

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