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May 13, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 131630Z – 141200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES.

…SYNOPSIS…

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OCCURRING TO THE FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH PRESENT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE CONTINENT. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN…MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS AND AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO DEEP S TX WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD TODAY. BY TONIGHT…THE SEGMENT OF THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS TO OH VALLEY WILL STALL IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE…THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.

…LOWER MI TO OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING…

DAYTIME HEATING TO THE E OF A LARGELY POST-FRONTAL CLOUD SHIELD COUPLED WITH A MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE…LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THIS CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH…SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

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From → Weather Blog

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