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May 13, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 13, 2014

May 13, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

VALID 132000Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO

…PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK…
/1/ AREAS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO NRN OH HAVE BEEN CATEGORICALLY UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK. EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NEWD OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN ORGANIZING MCS FROM NWRN OH TO SERN LOWER MI. WITH 50 KT H7 SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z DTX RAOB…AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG…ROBUST CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AS THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADS EWD TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND SWRN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

/2/ WRN EXTENTS OF MARGINAL SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING POSITIONS OF STRONGER CONVECTION — W OF WHICH THE LACK OF BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SVR POTENTIAL.

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