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Mesoscale Discussion 596

May 13, 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 596

mcd0596

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF ERN INDIANA AND ADJACENT NWRN OH

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132000Z – 132200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…20 PERCENT

SUMMARY…STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS.

DISCUSSION…VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN INDIANA ATTM…WITH A SECOND ARCING OUTFLOW CROSSING NWRN OH. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF STORMS RIGHT NOW — ONE CROSSING SERN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER ADVANCING ACROSS ERN INDIANA TOWARD WRN OH. THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY S OF THE LOWER MI CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /WHICH HAS STARTED SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO/ IS ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES /INVOF ADAMS AND JAY COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND ADJACENT VAN WERT…PAULDING…AND MERCER COUNTIES IN OH/ — WHERE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THAT SAID…STORMS OVERALL HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED LARGELY DISORGANIZED…REDEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS AS COOL AIR REPEATEDLY UNDERCUTS ONGOING STORMS LEADING TO SUCCESSIVE NEW UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E. EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS…BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

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