Skip to content

May 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 14, 2014

May 14, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

day1probotlk_torn

day1probotlk_wind

day1probotlk_hail

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

VALID 141200Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL/UPPER OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER…A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

…SUMMARY…
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM/WEST TX WILL ROTATE EASTWARD AND INTO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY WED AFTERNOON. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MS INTO KY/TN AND OH WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CORRIDOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

…OH VALLEY…
AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER PARTS OF MS/TN DURING THE MORNING…SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND/OH AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN PA. ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES IN THIS CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

…TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS…
SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW…A COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN AND SURGE EASTWARD INTO TN/MS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT…WITH ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND NORTHWEST GA WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

Advertisements

From → Weather Blog

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: