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May 14, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 14, 2014

May 14, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

VALID 141300Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS NNE INTO THE UPR OH VLY AND ERN GRT LKS…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER…A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA…MUCH OF OHIO…AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

…SYNOPSIS…
AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THU. CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS REINFORCED BY NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING NRN MN…AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER N TX ACCELERATES NNE INTO IL.

AT THE SFC…APPROACH OF TX IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE INDUCING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ATTM ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER CNTRL MS. THE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TNGT…REACHING NW OH BY 12Z THU. ELSEWHERE…WEAK BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM CNTRL VA/WRN MD NWD INTO W CNTRL PA/WRN NY.

…LWR MS/TN VLYS NNE INTO OH VLY/ERN GRT LKS TODAY/TNGT…
SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT/LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM TX UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TODAY. STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING…TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS…AND UPLIFT ALONG BACK-DOOR FRONT NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS.

MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN. BUT WITH FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES…WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTH/…SUSTAINED CONFLUENT FLOW ULTIMATELY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC WAVE…AND NEAR BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY FARTHER N…MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES…IN ADDITION TO SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. BUT CONTINUED DEEPENING OF SFC WAVE AND STRENGTHENING OF WIND PROFILES /WITH 700 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS/ SUGGEST THAT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO TNGT…ESPECIALLY FROM THE KY NNEWD INTO OH AND PERHAPS FAR SE IND.

ELSEWHERE…CONFLUENCE WELL AHEAD OF EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND COMPARATIVELY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES /GREATER SFC HEATING/ MAY SUPPORT SCTD…MAINLY PULSE SVR STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF GA…AND OVER WV/VA.

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