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May 14, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 14, 2014

May 14, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

VALID 142000Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST STATES…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS OHIO.

…PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK…
/1/ SVR PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO AND ADJACENT NORTHERN KENTUCKY / NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED/BACK SLIGHTLY WWD…OWING TO THETA-E ADVECTION RELATED TO 2-HOURLY SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2.0-2.5 MB PRECEDING A CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES WILL CONTINUE TO BREED AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH…AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEWD INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ALSO SPREADS NEWD FROM THE TN VALLEY. CONCURRENTLY…ILN VWP INDICATES STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW FOSTERING AN UPTICK IN DEEP SHEAR…AND DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN OHIO. WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST…A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SVR WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN OUTLINED ADDRESSING THE SVR TSTM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.

/2/ THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL VA INVOF A RETREATING WARM FRONT…S OF WHICH STRONG BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN THIS VICINITY.

/3/ THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL WHERE ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS OFFERED SUFFICIENT THETA-E DEFICITS TO DEPLETE BUOYANCY ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.

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