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May 15, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 14, 2014

May 15, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

VALID 150100Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FOCUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE OH RIVER NEAR SDF. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER…COMPETING FACTORS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.

…EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA/WESTERN NY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA. THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED SEVERAL HAIL/WIND AND EVEN TORNADO REPORTS EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL OH…BUT HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING WILL TEND TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE STORMS THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS…THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

…EASTERN IND/WESTERN OH/CENTRAL KY…
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IND/KY BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 12Z AHEAD OF THE LINE…WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCAL CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER…EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE AIR MASS IN THE AREA…AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS…WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALSO MAINTAIN 15-PERCENT WIND AND 5-PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT.

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