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May 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 16, 2014

May 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

VALID 161200Z – 171200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-SOUTH…FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

…SYNOPSIS/FORECAST…
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN STATES. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL ORBIT THE CYCLONE…THE CENTER OF WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ONE OF THESE IMPULSES ADVANCES THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE…A MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK/NARROW BUOYANCY PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM…DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. FARTHER W…OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ROCKIES COUPLED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT OVER THE PLAINS AND VICINITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-SOUTH. IN ALL CASES…BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED…AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

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