Skip to content

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
606 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA…SOUTHEAST INDIANA…CENTRAL OHIO…MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO…SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO…SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST.

Advertisements

SPC May 16, 2014 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC May 16, 2014 0600Z Thunderstorm Outlook

enh_1600

enh_2000

May 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

VALID 161200Z – 171200Z

…NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-SOUTH…FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

…SYNOPSIS/FORECAST…
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE WRN STATES. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL ORBIT THE CYCLONE…THE CENTER OF WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ONE OF THESE IMPULSES ADVANCES THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE…A MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK/NARROW BUOYANCY PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM…DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-OHIO VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. FARTHER W…OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ROCKIES COUPLED WITH FRONTAL ASCENT OVER THE PLAINS AND VICINITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-SOUTH. IN ALL CASES…BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED…AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF INDIANA…KENTUCKY AND OHIO…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN INDIANA…DEARBORN…FAYETTE IN…FRANKLIN IN…OHIO…RIPLEY…SWITZERLAND…UNION IN AND WAYNE. IN KENTUCKY…BOONE…BRACKEN…CAMPBELL…CARROLL…GALLATIN…GRANT…KENTON…LEWIS…MASON…OWEN…PENDLETON AND ROBERTSON. IN OHIO…ADAMS…AUGLAIZE…BROWN…BUTLER…CHAMPAIGN…CLARK…CLERMONT…CLINTON…DARKE…DELAWARE…FAIRFIELD…FAYETTE OH…FRANKLIN OH…GREENE…HAMILTON…HARDIN…HIGHLAND…HOCKING…LICKING…LOGAN…MADISON…MERCER…MIAMI…MONTGOMERY…PICKAWAY…PIKE…PREBLE…ROSS…SCIOTO…SHELBY…UNION OH AND WARREN.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES…SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE PASSED…A STEADY AND MODERATE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EARLIER HEAVIER RAINS WILL NOT NEED MUCH MORE TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES…THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS…CREEKS AND OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

May 15, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 15, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

day1otlk

day1probotlk_torn

day1probotlk_wind

day1probotlk_hail

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

VALID 150100Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A POWERFUL NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FOCUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE OH RIVER NEAR SDF. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OH. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER…COMPETING FACTORS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.

…EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA/WESTERN NY…
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OH AND WESTERN PA. THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED SEVERAL HAIL/WIND AND EVEN TORNADO REPORTS EARLIER TODAY OVER CENTRAL OH…BUT HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING WILL TEND TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE STORMS THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS…THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

…EASTERN IND/WESTERN OH/CENTRAL KY…
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IND/KY BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 12Z AHEAD OF THE LINE…WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCAL CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER…EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED THE AIR MASS IN THE AREA…AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS…WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALSO MAINTAIN 15-PERCENT WIND AND 5-PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
845 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON…

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA…SOUTHEAST INDIANA…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…NORTHERN KENTUCKY…CENTRAL OHIO…MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO…SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO…SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO…GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO…NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO…

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 514 PM EDT…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR OREGONIA…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE…WINDS TO 60 MPH…QUARTER SIZE HAIL…

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…WAYNESVILLE…XENIA…YELLOW SPRINGS…CEDARVILLE…

IN ADDITION…LYTLE…CORWIN…CAESAR CREEK STATE PARK…HARVEYSBURG…MOUNT HOLLY…BELLBROOK…ROXANNA AND NEW BURLINGTON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP SUDDENLY IN THESE CONDITIONS. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. IF IN A MOBILE HOME…A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA…WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.